Wednesday, September 21, 2016

What The Federal Reserve Will Likely Do

Here is the conundrum, because if the Federal reserve does not raise interest rates which I think is the more likely option then, "You cried wolf again, you talked about raising rates and you did not do it!". If they do raise interest rates then it is like, "Well, wait a minute, I thought you were data dependent, what are you doing raising rates when the economic data has gotten worse?" 

 The reality is they should be raising interest rates regardless of the economic data because interest rates are too low. The low rates are creating a problem. It does not matter if the economy is weaker or stronger, interest rates need to go up.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

The Bottom Will Fall Out Of The U.S. Dollar

When people figure out that the Federal Reserve got it all wrong, that is when the bottom is going to fall out of the U.S. Dollar.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

With Horrible Data, Why Did The Fed Raise Rates?

With all the economic data horrible, with retail sales horrible, with corporate earnings horrible, it is obvious that the U.S. Economy is heading to a recession. So, why did the Federal Reserve raise rates?

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

The High Yield Market Is Getting Obliterated (JNK, HYG)

The biggest losers are not even in the stock market but in the bond market. The High Yield market is getting obliterated. If you look at some of these funds that own high yield bonds, they got clobbered.

In fact they are now at their lowest level since mid-2009! If the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates this week they are probably going to take out their lows from late 2008, early 2009. It is a bloodbath in that high yield bond market. (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK), iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond (ETF) (HYG))

Monday, December 7, 2015

Ultimately Gold Has To Go Up

Ultimately gold has to go up if currencies are weakening even if the U.S. Dollar is weakening less than all the other fiat currencies.

Related ETF: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Thursday, December 3, 2015

ISM Manufacturing: Lowest Level Since March 2009!

The biggest drop in over 6 years, to the lowest level since March 2009. You need to go back to the heart of the Great Recession to find a ISM Manufacturing number as low as the one we got.

Monday, November 30, 2015

The Housing Market Has Rolled Over

I have been pointing out that there is also plenty of evidence that the housing market has already rolled over and if the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates it would push it down the hill that much quicker.

Trading tickers: SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB),  KB Home (NYSE:KBH),  Ryland Group Inc (NYSE:RYL), Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN)