Wednesday, December 23, 2015

With Horrible Data, Why Did The Fed Raise Rates?

With all the economic data horrible, with retail sales horrible, with corporate earnings horrible, it is obvious that the U.S. Economy is heading to a recession. So, why did the Federal Reserve raise rates?

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

The High Yield Market Is Getting Obliterated (JNK, HYG)

The biggest losers are not even in the stock market but in the bond market. The High Yield market is getting obliterated. If you look at some of these funds that own high yield bonds, they got clobbered.

In fact they are now at their lowest level since mid-2009! If the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates this week they are probably going to take out their lows from late 2008, early 2009. It is a bloodbath in that high yield bond market. (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK), iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond (ETF) (HYG))

Monday, December 7, 2015

Ultimately Gold Has To Go Up

Ultimately gold has to go up if currencies are weakening even if the U.S. Dollar is weakening less than all the other fiat currencies.

Related ETF: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Thursday, December 3, 2015

ISM Manufacturing: Lowest Level Since March 2009!

The biggest drop in over 6 years, to the lowest level since March 2009. You need to go back to the heart of the Great Recession to find a ISM Manufacturing number as low as the one we got.

Monday, November 30, 2015

The Housing Market Has Rolled Over

I have been pointing out that there is also plenty of evidence that the housing market has already rolled over and if the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates it would push it down the hill that much quicker.

Trading tickers: SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) (XHB),  KB Home (NYSE:KBH),  Ryland Group Inc (NYSE:RYL), Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN)

Friday, November 27, 2015

Expecting A New Bull Market In Gold Prices

Either way I expect to see a reversal in the price of gold and the beginning of a new bull market and of course a new bear market in the U.S. Dollar.

And eventually as the dollar turns around, the consumer prices are going to start picking up again, commodity prices will turn around, the CPI will go higher to north of 2 percent, no one is going to care. The Federal Reserve is not going to do anything about it because we are already moving towards recession.

The Currency Markets & Gold Are Preparing For Something That Cannot Happen

The currency markets and the gold market are preparing for something that cannot happen (a substantial rise in rates by the Federal Reserve).

But in any event either the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates slightly in December and indicate that they basically done or they are not going to move again for a long time or they are not going to raise interest rates and the market is going to figure out that they are never going to do it.